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Fixed asset investment in the manufacturing industry continues to bottom out, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the 3C field in the downstream
applications of industrial robots continues to pick up. In November 2019, manufacturing fixed asset investment increased by 2.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate
dropped 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. Manufacturing investment growth is still sluggish. Judging from the growth
rate of fixed asset investment in the three major fields of automobiles, 3C, and electrical machinery, which account for the highest proportion of downstream
applications of industrial robots, the cumulative year-on-year growth rates of investment in the automobile and electrical machinery manufacturing industries in
November were -0.4% and -6.8%. Both are in the
bottoming stage; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3C manufacturing investment was 13.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous
value, and the 3C investment growth rate is on a continuous upward path.
The cumulative year-on-year decline in automobile sales has gradually narrowed, and the cumulative year-on-year decline in smartphone shipments has
stabilized. From January to November 2019, the cumulative sales of automobiles in my country were 23.11 million units, with a cumulative year-on-year
growth rate of -9.10%. The decline narrowed 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous ten months. The cumulative year-on-year decline in automobile
sales has narrowed for 6 consecutive months. It is expected that The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for the whole year
was around -8.0%. From January to November 2019, my country”s cumulative shipments of smartphones were 343 million units, with a cumulative
year-on-year growth rate of -3.8%. The decline in smartphone shipments has stabilized, with a significant improvement compared with the same period last year.
It is expected that cumulative shipments throughout the year will be year-on-year. The growth rate is around -3.5%. We believe that the negative growth in
automobile sales may continue to narrow next year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of smartphone shipments is expected to turn positive. There is
strong certainty that the incremental automation demand in these two
downstream application areas of industrial robots will improve.
A few days ago, Yaskawa Electric President Hiroshi Ogasawara pointed out in an interview with Japanese media that China”s population has
reached about 1.4 billion, and domestic demand will definitely grow no matter how the Sino-US trade friction develops. If investment recovers, it will be a short-term
benefit to related companies in corresponding fields.
Perspective of listed companies: The industry has hit the bottom, and the structural characteristics are significant
According to the China Merchants Bank Research Institute, 30 listed industrial robot companies were used as samples to calculate the overall operating
income, net profit attributable to parent companies, gross profit margin, net profit margin and operating net cash flow and other indicators for the first three
quarters of 2019, and found that the overall industry profitability The level has entered a downward channel since Q4 2018, and is currently in the accelerating
bottoming stage, which is cross-confirmed with macro data tracking. At the same time, its research found that for companies with large customers in different
downstream sub-fields
within the industry, their profit levels are significantly differentiated.
In 2019Q1-3, the overall industry revenue declined slightly year-on-year, and the negative growth in single-quarter revenue narrowed significantly.
The industry”s overall operating income reached a historical high of 54.298 billion yuan in 2018, but the operating income growth rate fell from 33.53% in
2017 to 17.57%; in 2019 Q1-3, the industry”s overall operating income was 38.080 billion yuan, year-on-year It fell slightly by 0.71%. On a quarterly basis,
the single-quarter operating income growth center showed a downward trend, but the single-quarter operating income growth rate in 2019Q3 showed signs
of narrowing year-on-year decline. Based on the return of industrial robot production in the past two months and the narrowing of year-on-year declines
in sales of automobiles and smartphones in downstream applications, China Merchants Bank Research Institute infers that the annual industry revenue
growth rate may reach single-digit growth.
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